ELT in Brazil

What number is the arrow below showing?

What would your guess be?

If you answered something like 1.5, 1.6, or 1.7 know that this is the expected answer. Kudos to you.

On the other hand, if you guessed a number like 1.53 or even 1.532 or 1.532455 or anything of the kind I have news for you. From the bad kind.

When I was in high school, my math teacher taught us that when making estimates we can try to approximate the first number beyond our objective perception. That is, guessing 1.5 or 1.6 is totally fine. However, approximating beyond that (1.634 or 1.71234, for example) is illogical because you are already approximating one number – and you might be wrong!

The lesson I take from this is that, logically, we should only approximate one possible outcome, not two, three, four, or the whole story. Let me illustrate how this happens in real life.

I was at the gym earlier today and overheard the following conversation:
– There’s been a lot of noise coming from my neighbor lately.
– Really? What do you think it is?
– I don’t know, I think it might be his kids. Maybe it’s a dog. I don’t know if he has a dog. You know, maybe it’s a puppy dog. Puppies often make a lot of mess when they’re taken from their mother too young. I don’t think it’s polite of him to allow his dog to make so much noise. Doesn’t he know I work from home? I’m sure the other neighbors are bothered too.

See what I mean? Let’s analyze what the first interlocutor said:

– I don’t know, I think it might be his kids (approximation 1a). Maybe it’s a dog (approximation 1b). I don’t know if he has a dog (makes it clear that 1b is an approximation). You know, maybe it’s a puppy dog (approximation 2, based on 1b). Puppies often make a lot of mess when they’re taken from their mother too young (approximation 3, based on 2, which is based on 1b). I don’t think it’s polite of him to allow his dog to make so much noise (approximation 4, based on 3, which is based on 2, which is based on 1b). Doesn’t he know I work from home? I’m sure the other neighbors are bothered too (approximation x, new topic).

You might say “Oh Bruno, he’s just making conversation” – Sure, it might be the case. However, I see these ‘approximations’ quite often when people talk about politics and corruption, for example. I saw the news today that the USD went up after the election results and the comments on the news piece seemed to suggest that this was proof that Americans made the right choice. See how that’s approximation 3 or 4?

Remember, anything beyond approximation 1 is not an approximation anymore – it’s imagination.